Coronavirus will be detected in people every day until the population acquires herd immunity, which means that 60-70% of the people living in society must get sick or get a vaccine, said Alexander Gorelov, deputy director for scientific work of the Central Research Institute of Epidemiology of Rospotrebnadzor. According to him, it is pointless to expect the epidemic to come to naught "naturally", since less than 1% of the world's population managed to get sick with COVID-19 in 10 months. The expert also suggested that Russia will reach a plateau in terms of incidence only in December this year.
“We know absolutely clearly that today less than 1% of people on the planet Earth have been ill, including in Russia. If 30% fall ill, the growth rate will slow down, and after 60-70% of the immune layer of herd immunity, we will come to a situation when the virus turns into seasonal, then the situation will be more predictable. I repeat that vaccination will help us to reach these deadlines faster. , - said Gorelov (quoted by TASS).
The expert noted that the epidemic in Russia is now in a growth phase, and therefore, expecting a plateau (the moment when the number of new cases per day ceases to grow significantly every two to three days) can not be expected in November. “We are now in the growth phase. According to the laws of epidemiology, it lasts an average of 2-2.5 incubation periods of 14 days. The period when we can talk about any stabilization is the first decade of December, and now the growth phase is still underway. - he explained.
According to Gorelov, the number of new cases of COVID-19 will begin to fall first in Moscow, since the capital faced an epidemic earlier than the regions.
Natalya Pshenichnaya, Deputy Director for Clinical and Analytical Work of the Central Research Institute of Epidemiology of Rospotrebnadzor, noted that the next exacerbation of the situation with COVID-19 in Russia can be expected in February-March 2021. "After the New Year holidays in February-March, the epidemic process is intensifying again, and we will return to summer indicators, most likely closer to summer.", - she clarified (quoted by RIA Novosti).
In Russia, over the past day, a record 17,347 cases of coronavirus infection have been identified. The total number of people infected in the Russian Federation for the entire time of the pandemic was 1,531,224. Over the past 24 hours, 7,574 people recovered, the number of victims of COVID-19 increased by 219, to 26,269. place - St. Petersburg (715 people), in third place - Moscow region (499 people).
